Why Food Prices Could Spike Again

What Could Go Wrong

Aug 19

4 min read

When a major supply-chain disruption hits, most Americans watch the obvious things first: gasoline prices, shipping delays and empty shelves.

But there is another problem—and it often takes much longer to show up.

The real damage can be delayed.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has already disrupted energy, shipping and fertilizer markets. Even if transportation through the region returns to normal, the economic effects don't disappear overnight.

Costs that hit farmers today can show up in your grocery bill months later.

And that's the part many people miss.

The First Shock Isn't Always the Biggest

Think about how food gets to your kitchen.

Farmers need fertilizer to grow crops. Fertilizer production depends heavily on energy and natural gas. Crops then have to be harvested, transported, processed, packaged and delivered to stores.

A disruption anywhere along that chain can eventually reach the consumer.

The Persian Gulf is particularly important to the fertilizer trade. According to analysis cited by the original article, countries in the region account for roughly 43% of seaborne urea exports, 44% of seaborne sulfur trade and more than a quarter of global ammonia exports.

That matters because fertilizer isn't optional for modern agriculture.

When fertilizer becomes more expensive or harder to obtain, farmers have difficult choices: pay more, use less, change what they plant or absorb the loss.

None of those choices makes food cheaper.

Fertilizer Prices Already Took a Hit

The effects weren't hypothetical.

The original article reports that Middle East granular urea prices jumped 38.8% by March 13, reaching about $680 per metric ton. U.S. retail urea prices were up more than 40% by mid-April, while anhydrous ammonia prices were also significantly higher.

For farmers, those aren't small increases.

Higher fertilizer costs can add tens of dollars per acre to the cost of producing crops. And once a planting season is underway, a farmer can't simply go back and redo those decisions months later.

That's why the effects of a disruption can continue even after the original crisis starts fading from the headlines.

Here's Why Your Grocery Bill Can Lag Behind

This is where the average consumer can get fooled.

You might see energy prices stabilize and assume the danger has passed.

But agriculture doesn't work that way.

A farmer buys inputs.

The crop is planted.

The crop grows.

It is harvested months later.

Then it becomes everything from flour and cooking oil to animal feed and packaged food.

Only after all of those steps does much of the increased cost reach the grocery store.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that fertilizer shortages could affect crop yields and food supplies through the second half of 2026 and into 2027.

In other words:

The bill for today's disruption may arrive tomorrow.

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We've Seen This Movie Before

This isn't a new phenomenon.

During the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo, Americans saw gasoline shortages and long lines almost immediately.

But the deeper economic effects took longer to work their way through transportation, agriculture and manufacturing.

A 1974 USDA report warned that fertilizer costs could rise dramatically and that natural-gas shortages could threaten fertilizer production.

The lesson isn't that history repeats itself perfectly.

The lesson is simpler:

A crisis can end before its consequences do.

That's something worth remembering the next time the headlines say everything is getting back to normal.

Fertilizer Isn't the Only Concern

There are other pressure points.

Petrochemical products from the Gulf are used in plastics, packaging, textiles and other everyday products. If factories burn through existing inventories, consumers may not notice a problem until those inventories need to be replaced.

Energy is another concern.

Natural gas is not only something we burn for heat and electricity. It's also an important input in producing nitrogen fertilizer.

That means an energy squeeze can eventually become a farming problem.

Then there's shipping.

Even if a major shipping route reopens, ships, crews, insurance, ports and supply chains don't instantly return to normal. Backlogs have to clear and transportation networks have to readjust.

That's how a temporary disruption can become a much longer economic headache.

What Can You Actually Do?

You can't control what happens halfway around the world.

You can't control fertilizer prices.

You can't reopen an international shipping lane.

But you can control how dependent your household is on everything working perfectly every single day.

That's where basic preparedness makes sense.

Start with the food your family actually eats.

Keep a reasonable reserve of staples such as rice, beans, flour and sugar. Rotate what you store so it gets used instead of sitting forgotten in the back of a cabinet.

Consider keeping a longer-term emergency food supply as well.

If you have the space, grow some of your own food. Keep seeds for the next growing season. Get to know local farmers, ranchers and food producers.

And don't stop with food.

Keep reasonable reserves of water, fuel, medicine and other household necessities.

You don't have to believe a catastrophe is coming tomorrow.

You simply have to recognize that fragile systems eventually fail somewhere.